Did domestic travel restrictions slow down the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia? A joinpoint regression analysis

Background Saudi Arabia has recorded the largest number of COVID-19 cases in Arab world. However, since September 2020 been falling steadily. Various factors may have behind this success. Joinpoint software is a freely available program that allows detection statistically significant trends data. This paper uses tool to explore specifically impact domestic travel restrictions on control pandemic. Methods Data for were collected from 2 March until first August 2020. analysis was done country and four cities. Public perception severity pandemic included by fitting time-dependent case fatality rate (CFR). The detected joinpoints compared with key dates during which imposed or relaxed. Results revealed most changes selected cities could not be linked restrictions, except partial lifting curfew 21 April accommodate fasting month Ramadan around 28 May contributed surge cases. Moreover, time CFR whole did coincide any intervention measures’ other than Conclusions While able link some it unable relate sudden surges declines disease measures. Given difference population size studied cities, their different geographical location, fact they subjected at times severity, given public analysis, we can conclude confidence either data under-collected as large segment tested and/or played only limited role measures such compulsory wearing masks, sector lockdown schools closing.